Trump’s tariff may impact orange juice, coffee, meat, and fruit sales
US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 50-percent tariff on all Brazilian products exported to the US could jeopardize Brazilian agribusiness revenues, cause market imbalances, and put pressure on the prices paid to producers. The warning was issued by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA) of the Luiz de Queiroz School of Agriculture (ESALQ), at the University of São Paulo (USP).
The items said to be most exposed to the tariffs are orange juice, coffee, beef cattle, and fresh fruit.
Among these, orange juice is the most sensitive to the new policy, the researchers argued. “There is already a fixed tariff of $415 per ton on the product. A surcharge of up to 50 percent would sharply increase the cost of its entry into the US, compromising its competitiveness in the second largest destination of Brazilian shipments,” the experts said in a note.
According to figures from the center, the US currently imports around 90 percent of the juice it consumes, with Brazil accounting for around 80 percent of this total. “This instability is occurring precisely at a time marked by a good harvest in the state of São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro region—314.6 million cartons estimated for 2025–26, up 36.2 percent from the previous cycle. With the North American channel at risk, the accumulation of stocks and pressure on domestic prices become more likely,” said USP Professor Margarete Boteon, from the center’s citrus department.
As for coffee, the US is the world’s top consumer of the product, importing some 25 percent from Brazil—especially the arabica variety, an essential item for the local roasting industry. As the US does not produce coffee, the rise in import costs is likely to jeopardize the viability of the entire domestic chain—which includes roasters, coffee shops, beverage industries, and retail chains.
“The exclusion of coffee from the tariff package is not only desirable but strategic—for both the sustainability of Brazilian coffee growing and the stability of the North American supply chain,” CEPEA’s coffee researcher Renato Ribeiro stated.
With the drop in the price of the product and the external instability caused mainly by the tariffs, producers have been selling minimal volumes to maintain cash flow, postponing vital negotiations until the tariff scenario becomes clearer.
Beef
The US is the second largest buyer of Brazilian beef—behind China, which accounts for 49 percent of the total shipped by Brazil. US companies are responsible for 12 percent of Brazilian exports and, from March to April, they purchased record volumes of beef—over 40 thousand tons per month—which may indicate a possible move to build up stocks amid fears that Trump would increase tariffs on international trade. São Paulo, Goiás, and Mato Grosso do Sul are the Brazilian states that have shipped the most beef to the US.
In recent months, however, there has been a reduction in the volume exported to the US, while shipments to China have been on the rise. In June, several other trading partners also raised their purchases compared to May. According to the center, this signals that Brazilian meatpackers have the opportunity to expand their sales to other markets.
Fresh fruit
In the case of the fresh fruit market, the biggest immediate impact is on mangoes, the specialists pointed out. The critical export window for this product to the US begins in August. Reports of shipments being postponed due to tariff uncertainty have already surfaced, they noted. Brazilian grapes—whose harvest is scheduled for the US in the second half of September—are also on alert.
Before the tariffs, however, fresh fruit exports were likely to rise, bolstered by the appreciation of the exchange rate and the productive recovery of various crops. “The optimistic projection has been replaced with doubts. In addition to the expected downturn in sales to the US, there is a risk of an imbalance between supply and demand in the main destinations, putting pressure on producer prices,” said Lucas de Mora Bezerra, also from the center.
What could happen, the researchers said, is that the fruit destined for the US could be sent to other markets—like the European Union—or even absorbed by the domestic market, which could put pressure on producer prices.
Given this general context around coffee, beef, orange juice, and fresh fruit, the center stated that “diplomatic coordination is urgently needed, with a view to revising or excluding tariffs on Brazilian food products.”
“Such a measure is strategic not only for Brazil, but also for the US itself, whose food security and the competitiveness of its agro-industry depend substantially on Brazilian supplies,” the note reads.
