Brazil to grow 2.4% in 2025, outpacing Latin America, says World Bank
The Brazilian economy is expected to grow 2.4 percent this year, above the Latin American and Caribbean average of 2.3 percent. The projection comes from the World Bank, which released a new edition of its regional economic report on Tuesday (Oct. 7).
World Bank economists project the following growth rates for Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the total value of goods and services produced:
Year GDP growth projection
2025 2.4%
2026 2.2%
2027 2.3%
The projections are the same as those in the June report. The estimates are higher than those of both the Brazilian Central Bank (BC) and the domestic financial market.
The BC’s Monetary Policy Report, released on September 25, projects growth of 2 percent in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026.
The Focus Bulletin, a Central Bank survey of financial institutions released on Monday (6), forecasts GDP growth of 2.16 percent for 2025 and 1.8 percent for 2026.
Last year, Brazil’s GDP grew by 3.4 percent.
According to the September MacroFiscal Bulletin, the Ministry of Finance has more optimistic projections, forecasting growth of 2.3 percent in 2025 and 2.4 percent in 2026.
The World Bank report does not provide specific justifications for each country’s projections, only for the Latin America and Caribbean region as a whole.
Latin America and the Caribbean
The World Bank is an international financial institution made up of 189 countries. It is part of the United Nations system and is headquartered in Washington, D.C., the capital of the United States.
The multilateral bank’s role is to provide loans to developing countries to finance infrastructure, health, education, and other projects.
For the 29 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, the World Bank forecasts growth of 2.3 percent in 2025 and 2.5 percent in 2026. The 2025 estimate is unchanged from the June report, while the 2026 estimate is 0.1 percentage point higher. In 2024, the region grew 2.2 percent, according to the World Bank.
Regional factors
According to the World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean are growing at the slowest pace among global regions. Experts at the institution point to both external and internal factors as explanations.
External factors include the slowdown in the global economy and the decline in commodity prices (raw materials traded widely at international prices). Countries such as Brazil, Chile, Venezuela, and Bolivia are major commodity exporters.
On the domestic front, economists point to monetary policy (aimed at controlling inflation), which acts as a brake on the economy. Other factors include low levels of investment, “both public and private,” and a “persistent lack of fiscal space,” meaning governments have limited room for public spending.
“These challenges only reinforce the importance of a growth-oriented reform agenda in infrastructure, education, regulation, competition, and tax policy,” notes the World Bank.
