Brazil’s greenhouse emissions fall in 2024, but target remains at risk
Brazil’s gross greenhouse gas emissions slipped by 16.7 percent in 2024. The total was 2.145 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (2,145 GtCO2e). In 2023, emissions totaled 2.576 billion metric tons. It was the second largest reduction in the time series, which began in 1990.
The figures can be found in a report released by the Climate Observatory (OC). Net emissions stood at 1.489 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent – a 22 percent decrease. This accounts for gross emissions minus the carbon absorbed by vegetation and protected areas.
The reduction is directly linked to the decline in deforestation, particularly in the Amazon and the cerrado biomes, where emissions from land-use change fell by 32.5 percent. All Brazilian biomes saw a drop in emissions, except for the pampa (up six percent). Even so, Brazil remains among the world’s largest emitters due to deforestation.
The report also highlights the impact of the 2024 forest fires. Emissions caused by fire reached the highest level on record – 241 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (241 MtCO2e). If they were included in the official inventory – which is not currently the case – they could double the net emissions associated with land-use change.
In other sectors of the economy, emissions remained stable or increased. Agriculture and livestock saw a slight decrease of 0.7 percent. Energy (0.8%), industrial processes (2.8%), and the waste sector (3.6%) saw increased emissions.
Figures by state
Despite the decline in deforestation, the Amazon states had per capita emissions comparable to those of wealthy countries in 2024, due to their low population and high gross emissions. Atop the list was the state of Mato Grosso, with 60 tons per capita – nearly three times the per capita emissions of Saudi Arabia and more than three times those of the US.
São Paulo, Alagoas, and Pernambuco have gross per capita emissions lower than the global average (three tons of carbon dioxide per inhabitant each).
In the ranking of gross emissions, the leading Brazilian states in 2024 were Pará (278 MtCO2e), Mato Grosso (231 MtCO2e), Minas Gerais (190 MtCO2e), and São Paulo (145 MtCO2e).
Projections
The projection indicates that Brazil is likely to narrowly miss the target set in its nationally determined contribution (NDC) for 2025. Researchers believe that additional measures are needed, particularly in fire control and in reducing emissions in sectors such as energy and industry.
As it stands today, it is believed that emissions control in the country is overly focused on curbing deforestation. In other words, Brazilian environment authority IBAMA is the primary agent for carbon mitigation. According to the observatory, other sectors of the economy must contribute to ensure that the next NDCs are met.
