Polls: Bolsonaro 31%, Haddad 21%, Ciro 11%, Alckmin 8%

A new survey by pollster Ibope, commissioned by TV Globo and newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo, reports Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) with 31 percent of intended votes, Fernando Haddad (PT) with 21%, and Ciro Gomes (PDT) with 11 percent. Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) was named by eight percent of respondents. The nine other candidates fluctuated between four and one percent, or failed to score at all.

Twelve percent of the electors interviewed said they plan to cast a blank or null ballot; 5 percent stated they did not know whom they were going to vote for, or refused to answer.

Then and now

Figures show Jair Bolsonaro up four percentage points in intended votes from the Sep. 26 survey (27 percent) and the latest one. Fernando Haddad was steady at 21 percent, with Ciro Gomes slipping from 12 to 11 percent. Geraldo Alckmin still stands at eight percent.

The rate of voters planning to cast a blank or null ballot went from 11 to 12 percent. Those who did not know or did not want to answer added up to five percent, from a previous seven.

Rejection

Among the respondents who said they have someone they would “by no means” vote for, Jair Bolsonaro preserved his 44 percent rate, with Fernando Haddad showing 38 percent, up 11 percentage point from the Sep. 26 polls. Geraldo Alckmin was still seen with 19 percent and Ciro Gomes’s rejection rose from 16 to 18 percent.

Second round

As was the case with previous polls, Ibope also simulated second-round scenarios. With Fernando Haddad and Jair Bolsonaro, both would amass 42 percent of intended votes. Blank and null ballots would total 14 percent, and three percent of voters said they did not know what to answer.

With Ciro Gomes facing Jair Bolsonaro, the former would garner 45 percent of votes, with the latter 39 percent. In this landscape, blank and null ballots would total 13 percent, and three percent said they did not know.

In a possible Alckmin–Bolsonaro confrontation, the PSDB member would get 42 percent, with Bolsonaro 39—an outcome also regarded as a draw. In this scenario, 14 percent of the votes would be blank or null, with three percent of respondents unable to answer.

The survey was conducted from Saturday (Sep. 29) to Sunday (30), and heard 3,010 electors across 208 municipalities. The level of confidence is reported at 95 percent, with plus or minus two percentage points as the margin of error.