Brazil's financial institutions expect 7.06% inflation this year

The financial market's forecast for Brazil's 2016 inflation as gauged by the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) has been slightly revised to 7.06% from 7.04%, according to the Focus Market Readout, a weekly survey of financial institutions conducted by Brazil's Central Bank. For 2017, the forecast has remained stable at 5.50% for the past two weeks.

These projections are above the 4.5% target. The upper target range is 6.5% for this year and 6% for 2017. The Central Bank has the role of ensuring inflation stays within the target by trying to influence the economy using such instruments as the benchmark interest rate (SELIC).

The median of financial institutions' expectations (excluding end values from the projected ranges) for the SELIC rate has been raised from 12.75% to 12.88% per annum at the end of 2016, and lowered from 11.38% to 11.25% p.a. at the end of 2017. The SELIC rate currently stands at 14.25% p.a.

The financial market's forecast for the decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the sum of the goods and services produced in the country, has been revised from 3.83% to 3.81%. For 2017, the expected growth now stands at 0.55% as against last week's 0.50%.

The projected dollar exchange rate for the close of 2016 decreased slightly from R$3.67 to R$3.65. The forecast for 2017 has also been revised down, going from R$3.88 to R$3.85.

Translated by Mayra Borges