Central bank forecasts inflation of 10.8% this year
Measured by the IPCA (National Broad Consumer Price Index), inflation this year will post a two-digit figure and move away from the 6.5% forecast as the maximum target. The Central Bank (BC) forecast an infation of 10.8% to close out the year. The last time inflation posted a two-digit figure was in 2002, when it reached 12.53%.
The forecast has been released today (Dec. 23) in the Quarterly Inflation Report, by the Central Bank. The estimate released in September was 9.5%. For 2016, IPCA forecasts an increase, from 5.3% to 6.2%. In 2017, inflation should stand at 4.8%.
These estimates have been considered in a scenario based on the key interest rate, Selic, at the current level of 14.25% per annum and the dollar currency at R$3.90.
The Central Bank has also released estimates of the market scenario, in which forecasts from analysts of financial institutions for the Selic rate and exchange are used. In this case, IPCA should also reach 10.8%, before the 9.5% forecast in September.
For 2016, the market estimate has been adjusted from 5.4% to 6.3%. In 2017, inflation should reach 4.9%.
The National Monetary Council (CMN) defined 4.5% as inflation target for 2016 and 2017, and the maximum limit is 2 percentage points for next year and 1.5 for 2017.
When the target is surpassed, the Central Bank president has to send an open letter to the finance minister, explaining the reasons for failing to reach the target. The last time it happened was in 2003, when inflation mount to 9.3%.
Translated by Amarílis Anchieta
Fonte: Central bank forecasts inflation of 10.8% this year
