Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB) estimates coffee production to stand at 53.4 million bags for this year's harvest. This amount is up some 5.7 million bags from the previous cycle.
Compared to the crop in 2020—the last year with a positive billenial cycle—this year's expected production is 15.3 percent lower, or 9.65 million bags. The biennial cycle consists of the alternation of a year with large flowering followed by another with less intense flowering.
"The recovery is limited, since the drought and frosts last year, mainly in Minas Gerais, Paraná, and São Paulo, weakened the plants, affecting the productive performance of coffee plantations," CONAB head Guilherme Ribeiro said in a statement.
Arabica coffee
According to the company, arabica coffee is the type most likely to be influenced by adverse weather, as it is concentrated in the regions most affected by low temperatures and water shortages. But the output is still expected to recover against last year's harvest, possibly reaching 35.7 million sacks of the processed product. "However, a higher production potential was anticipated, because it is a cycle of positive biennials. If compared to the 2020 harvest, the decrease should reach 23.6 percent in the estimated total volume," the statement goes on to read.
For the average yield, the last year with a positive cycle was reported to have reached about 32.21 sacks per hectare for arabica coffee. In the current harvest, the estimated average yield is 24.6 sacks per hectare. Minas Gerais state remains the country's top coffee producer, with 24.7 million sacks produced, of which 24.4 million are arabica.
Conilon coffee
In a trend opposite to that of the Arabica, the production of conilon coffee is expected to reach a new record, with a harvest of 17.7 million processed sacks, up 8.7 percent from the previous harvest, driven by the increase in productivity that has proved recurrent every year.
In Espírito Santo, the country's main producing state of conilon, production tends to exceed 12 million sacks. "No extreme weather was recorded in the state of Espírito Santo. On the contrary, rainfall and temperatures were favorable for the crop. The same scenario was observed in Bahia. In Rondônia, in addition to good weather conditions, producers continue investing in technological improvements. The states of Mato Grosso and Amazonas have great potential for boosting productivity and as a result also production," the director of CONAB's Agricultural Information and Agricultural Policy, Sergio De Zen, said in a note.
Area
According to CONAB's survey, the area dedicated to coffee is estimated at 2.2 million hectares, up 1.9 percent from 2021. The increase is expected both for the area allocated to plants in formation and those in production. The area in formation should total approximately 401,200 hectares, while the crops in production are to cover over 1.84 million hectares, up 2.5 and 1.8 percent respectively.
Foreign market
In the first four months this year, Brazil exported 14.1 million 60-kilo sacks of coffee. The volume is 10.8% less than the exports in the same period last year, a result influenced by the decline in coffee production in 2021 and the lower domestic stocks in the first months of 2022.
"As it stands today, the restricted supply of the product continues to affect prices. On the other hand, the downward pressure on consumption fuels uncertainties and the current trend is rather volatile. However, the limited recovery in Brazilian production prevents more significant reductions in coffee prices and sustains market values at high levels," says Allan Silveira, CONAB's superintendent for Market Studies and Supply Management.
