Having nations abolish emissions by 2040 challenging, scientist says
A leading figure in climate change studies, Brazilian scientist Carlos Nobre said in São Paulo on Wednesday (Dec. 18) that the great challenge of the next United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) will be to convince “all countries to bring net emissions to zero by 2040.” COP30 will be held in Belém in November 2025.
“At COP30, we have to convince all countries to bring net emissions to zero by 2040—and no longer by 2050, because the temperature could surpass 2.5ºC [above pre-industrial levels] and reach all the points of no return,” he said.
“Brazil should be the first country with large emissions to achieve net zero emissions by 2040,” he added.
At the Paris Conference (COP21) in 2015, over 195 countries approved an agreement to limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels. At COP26, in Glasgow, Scotland, deadlines were set for this goal, with targets of slashing global emissions by 43 percent by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050.
However, some scientists have pointed out the risks of the world exceeding this threshold sooner than expected. This, Nobre pointed out, would be a major risk because we could reach the point of no return. In the case of the Amazon forest, it could lose its ability to self-regenerate after deforestation, degradation, and global warming, and would then tend towards desertification.
“In 2023 and 2024 the planet’s temperature skyrocketed. In 2021, we were 1.16ºC warmer than in 1850 and 1900. In 2024 we reached 1.59ºC [higher]. In three years, the temperature rose by 0.46ºC. For 17 months now, the temperature has been above 1.5ºC, which is the goal of COP26 [held in Scotland], which was to reduce emissions by 43 percent by 2030 and bring net emissions to zero by 2050. This draws attention to the risks we are experiencing,” he declared.
A collaborating researcher at the Institute for Advanced Studies (IEA) at the University of São Paulo (USP), Nobre was sworn in as the holder of the Climate & Sustainability Chair, created by the University of São Paulo (USP) with the aim of combining efforts and fostering new research initiatives on climate and sustainability. The launch of the chair as well as Nobre’s inauguration took place in São Paulo on Wednesday (18).
The chair should focus on two main objectives in 2025, Nobre said: studies on the so-called sponge cities (a term that describes an urban area with large green spaces to deal with floods and heatwaves) in Greater São Paulo and the creation of training courses on climate emergencies for school students and teachers across Brazil.
