New gov’t expected to take up liberal approach to economy

The administration of President Jair Bolsonaro, of the Social Liberal Party (PSL), is expected to follow an economic agenda with efforts to reduce government costs and stimulate growth. It should give importance to “conservative” demands from allies and electors, but will work with political pragmatism so that its proposals are approved by the Legislative branch and show good results.

The new administration may adopt an unprecedented way of building a rapport with party representatives. - Fabio Rodrigues Pozzebom/Agência Brasil

The overview was outlined by intellectuals heard by Agência Brasil. Sociologist Simon Schwartzman, former president of Brazil’s statistics agency IBGE (1994–1998), says that, in the macro-economic arena, priorities have been well defined: “The pension reform, measures for cutting public deficit, and opening the economy.”

In the view of José Barbosa, Contemporary History professor at the University of Brasília (UnB), the new government will be “liberal” in the political and economic perspective. He noted Bolsonaro’s pledge to “follow the Constitution,” and the decision to name Paulo Guedes “with carte blanche” to lead the Economy Ministry.

New model

The adoption of economic measures, the social agenda, including education, and the “costumes agenda,” to be proposed by the new administration will depend on the government’s rapport with Congress, where it still lacks a majority for approving constitutional reforms (three fifths of the votes in both congressional houses).

UnB political scientist Lúcio Rennó, author of a study on the resumption of conservatism among Brazilians in the October elections, mentions the strength of party leaders in the lower house and the Senate.

“Cross-cutting matters simply must be negotiated with these leaders,” he argued. He noted that the rules governing Congress in the last elections “strengthen the parties,” which is why “its institutional structures cannot be ignored.”

To his judgment, the new administration may adopt an unprecedented way of building a rapport with party representatives. Replacing the politics based on the exchange of support through positions and funds from the national budget, the president’s office is likely to conduct negotiations so that they advance with greater participation from leaders, who are also in charge of creating and shaping bills. “This joint creation could be considered a new model.”