Fiocruz launches system to identify beginning of new disease outbreaks
A system devised by Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz) to identify the beginning of new outbreaks of infectious diseases has been launched in Rio de Janeiro. A data crossing model elaborated by engineers from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) will allow the perception of signs of a scenario of sanitary concern.
The so-called Early Warning System for Outbreaks with Epi-Pandemic Potential (Aesop) was launched on Wednesday (Feb. 15), during the 6th Global Conference on Science, Technology and Innovation (G-Stic).
According to Fiocruz researcher and coordinator of the project, Manoel Barral-Netto, to avoid new health emergencies it is necessary to detect their signs as early as possible. He says the system has the potential to identify outbreaks of new or already known diseases.
"Currently, there are already several risk maps that indicate potential locations where an outbreak can happen. We want to go further. We want to identify the first moments of the beginning of the outbreak. If we can gain 15 days, it is already a lot of time to take the necessary measures and prevent the disease from spreading too far. In some aspects, we gain up to 30 days," he said.
The COVID-19 pandemic has put even more pressure on the world to advance solutions to broaden surveillance on infectious diseases, the researcher explained. He believes that in the future, Aesop could be used in other countries. By the end of 2024 all municipalities in Brazil are expected to be monitored for respiratory syndromes. Later on, alerts will be given for other infectious diseases.
Operation
The system uses health, environmental, and socio-demographic data. Most of them have already been collected by Brazil’s national public health care system (SUS) as well as by other institutions. Some aspects are taken into account in the municipalities that may favor the spread of some diseases: high demographic density, large elderly or child population, transport network connecting to another city with these characteristics, etc.
"The idea is to make a compilation of data to filter what we need. For example, let’s suppose a city registers a high number of people with fever. This can have many causes. By cross-referencing the data, the system shows that there is a combination of fever and cough. You start to get closer to a respiratory problem. And then we are adding other information, such as the sale of medicines. Are you selling a lot of aspirin? A lot of dipyrone? Is it above what the city historically sells for that period? It is an additional warning sign," Barral-Netto explains.
All the work has the support of the Ministry of Health and is the result of a partnership with the Rockefeller Foundation, a US-based non-governmental association that supports and promotes public health projects in several countries. According to Barral-Netto, the project was presented to the entity in search of funding, but the negotiations have evolved into scientific collaboration, which has allowed faster progress. While researchers at Fiocruz focus on designing the system to identify the spread of respiratory viruses, scientists at the Rockefeller Foundation are developing methods to detect outbreaks related to arboviroses, such as dengue and zika.
