Central Bank predicts lower deficit in commercial transactions
The Central Bank's forecasts for 2015 include a trade surplus, and exports surpassing imports by $15 billion, half the prediction for next year.
The rise in the dollar and Brazil's shrinking economic activity are likely to reduce the deficit in the country's external accounts. The Central Bank forecasts that the negative balance in current transactions—comprising purchases and sales of goods and services as well as income transfers with other countries—falls from $62 billion (3.48% of the GDP) this year to $41 billion (2.66% of the GDP) in 2016.
With the US currency on the rise and lower income, Brazilians are also going on international trips less often. From January to November, Brazilians' expenditures outside the country totaled $16.112 billion, against a $23.411 billion reported in the same period in 2014.
Tulio Maciel, head of the Central Bank's economic department, pointed out that the dollar rose some 40% this year, which makes buying good and services abroad even more expensive. Another factor is Brazilians' reduced income. On the other hand, dollar hikes benefit exports. That cuts down the deficit in the external accounts.
Maciel also argued that the balance of trade was the main factor contributing to the estimates for the external accounts. “Both exports and imports receded this year compared to 2014. But a more significant decline is observed for imports, which plunged 24%, and exports, which decreased 16% [from January to November compared to the same period in 2014],” he said. However, he added, the volume of exports are experiencing gradual recovery.
For 2016, the Central Bank predicts exports to hold steady and imports to maintain their downward trend. “The positive aspect of stability is that the reduction in exports is interrupted,” he said. Maciel went on to say that most commodity prices have already dropped and similar declines are not likely be seen in 2016.
The Central Bank's forecasts for 2015 include a trade surplus, and exports surpassing imports by $15 billion, half the prediction for next year.
The deficit in the services account (international travel, transport, equipment leasing, insurance, etc.) is estimated at $28.7 billion this year, and $33.4 billion in 2016. “The upward trend for services account is historic. It virtually stopped growing last year. This is the first year showing a decrease, which is a reflection of the expected external adjustment,” Maciel declared. Services in 2014 stood at a negative $48.107 billion.
Translated by Fabrício Ferreira
Fonte: Central Bank predicts lower deficit in commercial transactions
