Brazil revises up estimated 2017 trade surplus to $60 bi

The rise in prices all over the world and the volume of exports led the government to increased the surplus in the commercial balance estimated for 2018. The forecast went from $55 billion to $60 billion, which would represent the country's highest balance.

According to Herlon Brandão, director at the Department of Statistics and Support for Exports, linked to the Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services, the change came as a result of the estimate for the balance of trade later this year.

Soy

“With the performance of exports and imports, a number of goods are in the spotlight. The trend is likely to remain strong in the second half of the year,” Brandão said. Some of the products pulling up the growth among exports include soy, iron, oil, sugar, and vehicles, he added.

Last year, Brazil exported $47.5 billion more than it imported—the best surplus in the history of the country's balance of trade. The estimate for 2017 was originally not substantially different from that of 2016. Later on, however, it was revised to $55 billion.

To explain the improvement, Brandão mentioned the total amount of exports. Up to May, the volume of foreign sales showed an accumulated reduction of 0.8% compared to the same period in 2016. In June, the indicator reversed the trend, and presented an accumulated increase of 1.8%.

This turnabout, Brandão says, comes chiefly as a result of the growth in the shipped amounts of three goods in June: soy, iron, and oil. “The increase in oil production has boosted the rise in exports as a whole. The country is currently shipping a daily average of 1 million barrels.”

In the first six months of the year, oil exports soared 128.2%, the most significant high of all main goods sold oversees. The amount exported rose 45.3%. The international price went up 57.1%.

Translated by Fabrício Ferreira