WTO raises estimated growth in global trade to 3.6%

The World Trade Organization (WTO) increased the growth forecast in global trade for 2017 from 2.4% to 3.6%. The agency pointed out that the hike represents “a substantial improvement” from 2016's “weak” 1.3% expansion. The global landscape, however, was said to be still faced by uncertainties.

The estimated growth for trade this year stands in a range from 3.2% to 3.9%. The boost is driven mostly by Asia and North America, particularly China and the US.

According to the WTO, the sharper surge in the two countries stimulated the demand for imports. For China, an acceleration was observed in routes within Asia. In the US, the partial recovery in oil prices led to higher investments.

“We welcome the news of a better outlook for trade, but the substantial risks facing world economy still loom large and could easily undermine any commercial recovery,” said WTO Director-General Roberto Azevêdo.

Among the risks named was the protectionist rhetoric of world leaders. The document notes that the US have signaled they are interested in renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Another step towards protectionism was Brexit. UK's departure from the European Union was approved by the population in a referendum, but has not been finalized yet. Azevêdo also mentioned an increase in the world's geopolitical tension and the economic toll of natural disasters.

For 2018, the WTO projects a growth of some 3.2% in trade, within a 1.4%-4.4% range.

Translated by Fabrício Ferreira