Economic activity falls 0.40% in October, says Central Bank

The Brazilian economic activity had a negative change in October this year, according to data released today (15) by the Central Bank (BC). The Central Bank's Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br) dropped by 0.40% in October 2021 compared to the previous month, considering seasonally adjusted data (adjusted for the period). Thus, the index reached 136.87 points.

In comparison with October 2020, there was a reduction of 1.48% (without adjustment for the period, as the comparison is between equal months). In the quarter ended in October, compared to the three previous months, the drop was 0.94%. In comparison with the period from August to October of last year, IBC-Br grew 1.06%.

In the accumulated result for the year, there was an increase of 4.99%. And in the 12 months ended in October, the indicator was also positive, at 4.19%.

The index is a way of evaluating the evolution of Brazilian economic activity and helps the BC make decisions on the basic interest rate , the Selic, currently set at 9.25% per year. The IBC-Br incorporates information on the level of activity in the three sectors of the economy: industry, commerce and services and agriculture, in addition to the volume of taxes.

However, the official activity indicator is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, sum of goods and services produced in the country), calculated by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). In the third quarter of this year, GDP retreated 0.1% . In comparison with the third quarter of 2020, the indicator registered an increase of 4% and, in 12 months, it accumulated an increase of 3.9%.

The latest estimate of the Ministry of Economy for GDP, released last month, is for growth of 5.1% in 2021 . The financial market forecast for the growth of economic activity this year is at 4.65%.

In 2020, amidst the covid-19 pandemic, Brazil's GDP dropped 4.1%, totaling R$7.4 trillion. It was the biggest annual drop in the IBGE series, which started in 1996 and which interrupted the growth of three consecutive years, from 2017 to 2019, when the indicator accumulated an increase of 4.6%.

Text translated using artificial intelligence.