Brazil’s 2032-33 grain production likely to reach 390 mi tons

Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture estimates that grain production in the country should reach approximately 390 million tons ten years from now—a growth of over 24 percent, or 75.5 million tons. The result will stem chiefly from in soybean, corn, and cotton crops.

The forecasts can be found in the report Projeções do Agronegócio (“Projections on Agribusiness”) covering 2022-23 through 2032-33, conducted in partnership with national agricultural research company Embrapa. The surge should come at an increment rate of 2.4 percent a year. In addition, the area devoted to grain planting is likely to go from the current 77.5 million to 92.3 million hectares in 2032-33.

“The domestic market, exports, and productivity gains should be the top drivers for the next decade,” the ministry reported.

Investment in research

Soybean cultivation is expected to account for 78 percent of the expansion in the country’s planted area. Between 2032 and 2033, 186.7 million tons of soybeans are expected to be harvested, up 20.6 percent from 2022-23. In 2032-33, close to 33 percent of the soybean output should be destined for the domestic market

The document warns that, even though agribusiness projections show an “enormous growth potential” in the sector, investments in research should get a boost.

“The addition of 14.7 million hectares to the planted area may come from the conversion of currently degraded areas, particularly from extensive pastures, among other possibilities that preserve the country’s vegetation cover,” the ministry stated.

Corn and cotton

Like soybeans, corn is also expected to be influenced by its mounting use in biofuel (biodiesel and corn ethanol). According to the survey, the total estimated production of this grain in 2032-33 is 160 million tons, up 27 percent from 2022-23. The domestic market should take up 65 percent of total grain production.

“Exports and the demand for corn for ethanol production will be two important forces to stimulate cultivation. Corn is becoming more and more important as both raw material and food,” the statement reads.

The study forecasts a production of 3.6 million tons of raw cotton in ten years—an improvement of 26.8 percent for the product, which currently has the states of Mato Grosso and Bahia as the source of 90 percent of national production.

“The increase is expected to be driven by genetic improvement, better agronomic practices, new technological resources, and precision agriculture,” the ministry declared.

Meat

For meat production (beef, pork, and chicken), the expectation is a rise of 6.6 million tons between 2022-23 and 2032-33. If projections are confirmed, the result will represent an increase of 22.4 percent in production, from the current 29.6 million tons to 36.2 million tons.

The ministry reports that chicken (28.1%) and pork (23.2%) should display the highest growth rates in the coming years. As for beef, production should climb 12.4 percent and Brazil should continue to lead the international market for the product, supplying 28.5 percent of world consumption, provided there is enough “infrastructure development” in the country as well as “investment in research and funding for the sector,” the ministry went on to argue.

Approximately 35.5 percent of chicken production and 14.8 percent of pork will be destined for the domestic market.