Poll: Bolsonaro has 58%, Haddad 42% of intended votes

Yesterday (Oct. 10), pollster Datafolha released an opinion survey showing that Brazilian presidential hopeful Jair Bolsonaro, of the Social Liberal Party (PSL), has 49 percent of intended votes, while Fernando Haddad, of the Workers’ Party (PT), has 35 percent. Undecided electors and voters who said they would cast a blank ballot add up to eight percent. Six percent did know know or refused to answer.

Considering valid votes only (blank, null, and undecided left out), the gap between Bolsonaro (58 percent) and Haddad (42 percent) is 16 percentage points.

This is the first Datafolha poll for the second round of the vote. The survey heard 3,235 people across 227 municipalities. As was the case with polls before the first round of elections, the margin of error is plus or minus two points, with the confidence margin at 95 percent.

Sixty-three percent of voters were reported to have made up their mind about whom they were going to vote for “at least a month before” the election. Ten percent say they did so 15 days in advance, eight percent a week earlier, six percent the day before, and 12 percent on the very day the vote was held.