Brazil balance of trade has $3.99 bi surplus in September
In September, Brazil exported $3.993 billion more than it imported—a 9.3 percent reduction from September last year ($4.401 billion), according to the Ministry of the Economy. The drop in the international price of iron ore and the increase in the price of fertilizers and oil caused the surplus in the country’s balance of trade to shrink last month.
Year to date, the balance stands at a positive $47.869 billion—down 15.6 percent from the same months last year ($56.44 billion).
Last month, Brazil sold $28.95 billion abroad and bought $24.957 billion. Both imports and exports set a record in September since the beginning of this time series, in 1989. Exports were up 18.8 percent from September last year, under the daily average criterion. Imports, though, grew at a greater pace—24.9 percent in the same comparison.
As for exports, the record is due more to the quantitative increase than higher international prices. Last month, the volume of exported goods rose 12.6 percent on average in comparison to September 2021, while median prices rose six percent, driven by the lower price of iron ore (32%) and semi-finished iron or steel products (42.7%).
In imports, the quantity purchased rose 8.5 percent, reflecting the rebound in the economy, but average prices went up at a more intense pace: 18.6 percent. The surge in prices was pulled mainly by fertilizers, oil, natural gas, coal, and wheat—items that became more expensive after the war broke out between Russia and Ukraine.
Forecasts
The economic staff has significantly reduced the estimated trade surplus for 2022. In July, the government projected a positive $81.5 billion. The updated forecast on Monday (Oct 3) includes a surplus of $55.4 billion.
Despite the decline in the projection, this value would guarantee the second largest trade surplus in the time series. The balance would only be lower than the $61.407 billion surplus seen last year.
Official expectations are updated every three months. Predictions are more pessimistic than those of the financial market. The Focus market readout, a survey of market analysts released every week by the Central Bank, forecasts a positive $61.5 billion this year.
